The Phoenix housing market in June 2025 has decisively shifted from a seller’s to a buyer’s market, a significant change from the highly competitive conditions of recent years. This transition is marked by a substantial increase in housing inventory, providing buyers with more choices and greater negotiating power.
Sales activity has cooled, with homes taking longer to sell and a majority selling below their initial asking price. High mortgage rates remain a key factor influencing affordability, though builders are actively using incentives to attract buyers. The market is undergoing a period of stabilization and recalibration rather than a sharp downturn, with regional variations, such as Scottsdale’s luxury market, showing different dynamics.
Market Overview: Cooling Trends and Increased Buyer Leverage
The Greater Phoenix real estate market in June 2025 has decisively transitioned into buyer’s market territory, a significant shift from the frenetic seller’s market that characterized previous years. This change is marked by a noticeable correction in home prices and a general slowdown in sales activity.
It is crucial to understand that this adjustment does not signify a market crash but rather a significant recalibration driven by a confluence of factors including high mortgage rates, a substantial increase in housing inventory, and evolving buyer behavior.
Pricing Trends and Affordability
The Phoenix metro area’s housing market in June 2025 exhibited clear signs of softening price trends, with various metrics indicating a shift from the rapid appreciation seen in previous years. While some headline figures showed modest year-over-year gains, a closer examination, particularly of median prices for single-family homes and price-per-square-foot, revealed a cooling in property values.
Inventory and Sales Activity
The Phoenix metro area’s housing market in June 2025 was characterized by significant shifts in inventory levels and sales activity, reflecting the ongoing transition towards a buyer’s market. Inventory levels saw a substantial year-over-year increase, providing buyers with a much wider selection of homes and greater leverage in negotiations.
Regional Market Spotlight: Scottsdale
Scottsdale, a prominent and often high-value submarket within the broader Phoenix metropolitan area, continued to exhibit its characteristic premium pricing in June 2025. However, even this affluent market was not immune to the broader cooling trends affecting the region.
Market Shift Dynamics
Outlook and Forecast for 2025-2026
The outlook for the Phoenix housing market for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 suggests a period of continued adjustment and cautious optimism, rather than a sharp downturn or a swift return to the heated conditions of previous years. Market experts anticipate that 2025 will be marginally better than 2024, which was considered the weakest market in recent history.
Market Classification
Cautiously Optimistic
Cooling but not crashing
Mortgage Rate Outlook
Expected to Drop
H2 2025 & 2026
Buyer Advantage
Continued
CMI at 73 (Buyer's Market)
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Advice for Buyers and Sellers
For Buyers
Leverage Your Position
With inventory up 47% year-over-year and homes taking longer to sell, buyers have “time and leverage” to negotiate favorable terms.
Negotiate Aggressively
60% of homes are selling below asking price, with buyers negotiating an average of $6,300 off list prices on a $450,000 home.
Explore Builder Incentives
New construction offers significant incentives, including mortgage rate buydowns as low as 3.99% to 4.99%.
For Sellers
Price Realistically
Overpricing can lead to properties languishing unsold. Phoenix had 33.2% of listings with price cuts in June.
Enhance Presentation
Proper staging and high-quality photography are more important than ever to stand out in a crowded market.
Be Prepared to Negotiate
Expect requests for repairs, upgrades, or concessions. Flexibility is crucial in the current market.
